Comparing the 2020 census to the 2010 census, the Native American population nearly doubled. Where did all these new Natives come from?

The 2020 US Census reported dramatic increases, relative to 2010, in all non-white populations. This was overwhelmingly driven by people choosing mixed race options to identify themselves. While the total US population grew 7.4%, those who claimed multiple races (e.g. some combination of white, Black, Native American, Asian, Native Hawaiian, or other) nearly tripled, increasing 2.76 times, or 276%.

For example, those who stated they were Black-only increased a mere 5.6% (less than the overall population growth). When combined with other races, however, the total Black and mixed-Black population nearly doubled, increasing 89%.

The Hispanic population (also called Latino) is treated as an “ethnicity” and not a “race” by the census, and thus includes all potential races (e.g. white Hispanic, Black Hispanic, Native Hispanic, etc.). This group increased 23%. In absolute numbers, they represented slightly more than half of the total increase in the US population.

White-only was the only category that saw a decline, of 8.6%.

Curiously, the increase in numbers for Native Americans exceeded all others. The total Native population nearly doubled, growing from 5.2 million to 9.7 million. This corresponds to an increase from 1.7% to 2.9% of the US population.

Forty percent of the Native growth came from Hispanic Natives. Fifty-two percent of the growth came from people identifying as non-Hispanic mixed-Native/white. The remaining 8% came from increases in other mixed race/Native categories.

The non-Hispanic Native-only category (the red piece of the pie) stayed almost unchanged, growing by less than a few thousand people. This was probably because these people, many living on reservations, were undercounted due to Covid during the 2020 Census.

I’ll focus first on the 40% of the growth associated with the Hispanic-Native component, which includes both Hispanic Native-only and Hispanic mixed-Native (the olive pieces of the pie). Together, these grew from being 23% to 31% of the total Native population. This is attributed to an increase in Hispanic consciousness regarding Indigenous ancestry. The Hispanic mixed-Native category was the primary driver, nearly tripling, increasing from about a half million to 1.5 million people.

The majority of Native population growth, however, came from a near-tripling of people identifying as non-Hispanic mixed-Native/white (the orange pieces of the pie). In absolute terms, this population grew from 1.2 million to 3.5 million. In 2010, there were more non-Hispanic Native-only respondents (red) than mixed-Native (orange). In 2020, not only were they reversed, but the number stating they were mixed-Native was twice that of Native-only.

Some of this has been attributed to mixed Native/white relationships. In trying to understand that, I ran some numbers. The total increase in this section was 2.3 million people. If this was from mixed relationships, that would mean the increase was due to them having children. Just how many children could they have in ten years?

Using an average Native population of 7.4 million during the period, using standard estimates that 20% of the population are women of child-bearing age (15 to 44), and they average 51 births per 1,000 women per year, they would produce 740,000 children over the ten years between 2010 and 2020. That assumes that every child of a Native mother had a mixed-Native or white father. However, we need to double this if we simultaneously hypothesize that every child of a Native father also had a mixed Native or white mother. Thus, if every Native person of child-bearing age had a child with a mixed or white partner, they would possibly create 1.5 million mixed-Native/white children. That leaves just 800,000 people claiming mixed-Native/white status unaccounted for. Let’s assume my extreme assumptions are a little less extreme and imagine one million unexplained new Natives, all mixed-Native/white. Where did they come from? It would seem they existed during the 2010 census but did not check the Native box then, but they did in 2020.

The answer may be the same as with Hispanics – an increase in their consciousness regarding Native ancestry. There is, of course, one big difference. While most Hispanics are likely mestizo, whites, inherently, are not.

So where did this increased consciousness of Native ancestry come from? Perhaps the internet. In recent years there has been a proliferation of genealogical websites that purport to show online “proof” of relationships to ancestors such as Princess Cornblossom, Queen Cleopatra, or even Quanah Parker or Pocahontas. Ancestry.com, MyHeritage.com, FamilySearch.org, Geni.com, and Findagrave.com make no efforts to proof their crowdsourced data. I cover this issue in a previous blogpost. Fictitious entries are repeated from one family tree and one website to the next. In fact, they use algorithms to hype faux genealogies. I once received an email from FamilySearch proclaiming, “Stephen, you’re related to Pocahontas!”

Did one million white people also check the Native box on the 2020 census? Maybe. There are some other factors to consider.  The census reports that improved question design led to fewer non-responses among non-white respondents. That is, more people checked boxes (correctly) indicating their diverse backgrounds. That is, these people were there all along, they just weren’t counted correctly in the past. These improvements in question design, however, seem focused on developing additional categories (e.g. Middle East/North African instead of just “Other Race.”) The opportunity to chose multiple races on the census began in 2000. This doesn’t seem like it would have impacted Native American responses.

In determining tribal citizenship, of course, tribes don’t care who Ancestry.com says your family is, nor which box you checked on the census. They require documentation to meet whatever the requirements are for their tribe. It would be interesting to compare census results with how many people are actually enrolled citizens of federally-recognized tribes (acknowledging the many caveats regarding why many Natives may be excluded from such a tally). However, even though each tribe probably knows exactly how many citizens it has, a total number does not seem to exist. The closest I could find online was an estimate by the Bureau of Indian Affairs that there were about 2.0 million enrolled citizens in federally-recognized tribes in 2010. This corresponds to 5.2 million Natives according to the 2010 census (2.9 million Native-only and 2.3 million mixed Native). Given that the census numbers in the Native-only category are widely believed to be an undercount, it seems the BIA estimate is extremely low, and thus not helpful.

Regardless of an increase in “Pretendians” who may have gone so far as to check the Native box on the census, Native America is changing, with a dramatic increase in mixed Natives, both Hispanic and non-Hispanic. Mixed relationships are common across Indian Country. This creates complications for tribes still clinging to blood quantum to define citizenship. Such requirements will increasingly exclude even those who are raised within their communities, separating parents from children. The already hazy landscape of Indigenous identity is getting very smoky.

UPDATE: I’m going to add some of the great observations from relatives at IndianCountry and other subReddits. The increase in mixed-Native/white is also potentially due to:

1) A surge in people doing DNA tests, finding out they are 1% Native, and checking the box on the census, even though they have no idea which tribe.
2) A big push by tribes to get qualified people enrolled and to fill out the census form, as it affects federal funds to tribes.
3) An increase in people actually checking Native on the census because, in the past, older generations would either avoid the census or lie on it (leaving Native blank) out of fear that social services would take their children. It’s sobering to see how many people mentioned this.